Why to Love the Silver Bear Market – Rick Rule Interview


Dan of FMT: Greetings and thank you for joining
futuremoneytrends.com. I’m here with Rick Rule, he’s a legendary investor and he also
heads up Sprott USA. Rick, thanks for joining me.
Rick: Dan, pleasure as always. Dan of FMT: Rick, I have been very picky with
the resource stocks I bought for the past three years. Not because that’s my style,
hopefully will one day be, but more just an allocation of capital.
Six weeks ago I had a weekend with Rick Rule, and I watched 12 hours of YouTube videos of
you in the last six months and you gave me the courage to buy about 10 junior resource
stocks many of whom, or probably all of them you own. How does this compare to the other
bear markets, from what you’ve seen. I’m leaning on, is this the worst that you’ve seen or
is this… What’s it compared to? How safe am I buying.
Rick: The sector is never safe, first of all. You’ve asked me a bunch of questions there,
so I’ll try to answer them sequentially. [laughter]
Rick: We’ve talked before, Dan, about the fact that if the junior mining sector is composed
of 3,000 names on a global basis, you can scrape a zero off that in terms of which ones
you can consider buying. The first thing is that 1 in 10 juniors even merits consideration
and if you pick the stocks well over time, I think, you will do well if you can find
yourself the bear markets. With regards to ranking this bear market against
other bear markets I have seen, the bear market of the early and middle ’80s was like comparing
having cancer with the flu. That was a very bad bear market. That was one where more than
half of the listed oil companies in the globe, big, small, otherwise went broke.
That was a truly special bear market, one that I also experienced personally, sadly.
The bear market that we enjoy, if that’s the right phrase, in the period 1998 to 2002 was,
in one sense, the deeper bear market and in one sense not as deep. Deeper in the sense
that the companies that came into it were less well fortified financially, but the ones
that came into this one. Deeper in the sense that the duration was
longer. What’s interesting to me about this bear market, and maybe a better way to have
answer your question, would’ve been to say that I think this bear market probably sets
up the best opportunities of any bear market that I’ve ever seen, for two reasons.
The fact that the companies that came into this bear market gorged on capital from 2004
to 2010 means that the assets that are on sale now were bought with cheaper capital
and better managements then ever before. The severity of this market in a relatively short
period of time with 75 percent sell off in three years suggest that in certain cases,
not every case, because most of the money was wasted, as it always is, but in certain
cases you’re getting relatively well chosen assets at a 75 percent off sale.
Dan of FMT: What does a recovery look like in a junior resource market? I mean, this
is new to me so should I expect the next year to be a snap back or is this just like the
bear market spent three years in the bull market, going to take three years to start?
Rick: The bear market that we enjoyed, if that’s the right phase, was one that didn’t
occur with a capitulation sell off. We talked about this before on your show, you may not
remember, but I do. We didn’t see the precipitous downside.
This bear market has been like a board going through a planer mill with a belt sander coming
down taking a little piece off it. Without the precipitous sell off you don’t get a precipitous
decline. The recovery that we’re in right now, which I believe began in July of 2013,
is and will continue to be a saucer shaped recovery with higher highs and higher lows
but with every gain consolidating. This is an extremely healthy market that we’re
in. It is exhausting your patients and exhausting your faith, but what you’re seeing classically
is stock in metal. Moving from weak ends to strong, gradually.
What will happen in this market and you’re going to ask me when, which I will duck. What
will happen in this market is two things. The author of every bull market is a market
where the expectations are exceeded and it’s impossible that this market won’t exceed expectations,
because this market has no expectation associated with it at all.
The challenge would be to get under the hurdle, not over the hurdle. Markets happen when,
by surprise, the market performance exceeds expectation and that will happen and at some
point in time, I unfortunately can’t tell you when, we will experience a mini melt up.
You will be expecting because you’ve been conditioned to a 20 percent advance followed
by a 15 percent decline for a 5 percent net gain.
One of these days you’re going to find the 40 or 45 percent advance with no con commit
decline. I can’t tell you when that’s going to happen, but 40 years of sometimes hard
experience in this market tells me that it will happen.
Dan of FMT: When? [laughter]
Rick: I told you I’d duck it. That’s a young man’s job.
Dan of FMT: Are you open to sharing the last three stocks you bought?
Rick: No. The last 3 stocks I’m still buying and the idea that I’d have 10,000 of your
closest friends as my competitors in the market is not a prospect that fills me with joy.
Dan of FMT: Let me put you in a conflict of interest, because your job is probably to
promote Sprott as a business and as clients. What about Sprott asset management, because
my thought is safety and Sprott…I always think of with buying a bigger stock like IBM
or something hoping my grand kids will do business with them. With Sprott, it seems
like it’s almost like the shot gun approach, you’re investing in all the resource stock
and without any real risk. Its not like Sprott is going to go away in 10 years. It’s got
no debt. Rick: As a matter of public record, I own
like 30 million shares of Sprott, none of which were an escrow. I sold my business for
some, I bought the rest . We’ve done a really remarkable job in Sprott in a bear market
that saw our basic asset class fall by 75 percent.
We had three businesses since Sprott that need fixing. We fixed two and a half of them
and we built two new businesses in the course of that, despite a market which caused many
of our competitors to go away, which, by the way, is good news for us. We come out of this
with $325 million in networking capital, no debt and a business that generates between
$45 and $50 million a year in free cash in a bear market.
We have 160 investment professionals who, as you might suspect, are battle scarred and
ready to go. We pay a 4.2 percent dividend, which we get from free cash. We don’t borrow
to pay. What you say is in fact apropos were, in effect mutual fund, where you don’t pay
fees you received dividend. For a passive investor in junior resources,
Sprott may be the best pick of all. It’s certainly the largest exposure I have to the junior
resources industry, but I work there. Dan of FMT: I know it’s irrelevant of what
it used to trade for, but did not trade for around 11 bucks and today is about to 2…
Rick: Yeah, it came at 10 bucks, I think the high was 11. I haven’t seen the quote today,
but I suspect in Canadian dollars it’s at 2.75 or some number like that .
Dan of FMT: Silver. Because of Eric Sprott a lot of people have been attracted to [inaudible
8:14] because of the silver ETF, which actually I think it’s a trust. Right?
Rick: Correct. Dan of FMT: Silver just made another new low
in a four-year low. I wanted to know if you had any initial thoughts on it. I mean, gold
was holding up, the juniors have obviously been holding up, but here is silver making
another four-year low. Rick: From the point of view of someone like
myself admittedly I’m A. rich and B. patient. The fact that silver made a new low is a good
thing. The way that one adds wealth is by buying an asset class that one thinks is attractive
as cheaply as possible. People who don’t agree with that are people
that are nervous about their existing position, not people who are trying to get wealthy in
the future. I have been a consistent buyer of precious metals and I suspect that I will
continue to be a consistent buyer of precious metals until I see them disgracing the covers
of the major news magazines in the United States. In other words until a trade becomes
popular. Perversely, the declining silver prices are
attractive to me because I’d like to own more of it. I realize that many of your listeners
have neither my means or my patience and for them I can only say, this is going to sound
really ethereal and make me a Californian, but the essence of wealth is to enhance your
sense of well being. If your silver position is causing you trauma, sell it.
Get out of it. I can’t tell you when it’s going to turn. I can tell you why I think
it’s going to turn, but the truth is, if you’re uncomfortable with an asset class sell it,
buy something that you’re comfortable with. Dan of FMT: A few years ago we talked and
you said that without a doubt platinum palladium, in fact, last time in Tucson I asked you if
there was only one investment you could make, I believe it was was physical platinum palladium.
Is silver, now that it is below the cost of production, do you equally like silver just
as much are you still… Rick: I don’t. I still like platinum and palladium
much more. With silver you have to contend with the fact that nobody really knows what
the supplies are because so much has been stored as personal wealth in the Indian subcontinent.
Some of your listeners will remember back to 1997, when the silver price ran as an odd
set of circumstances surrounding Warren Buffett’s purchase of silver at the same time that the
Asian contagion caused the Indian rupee to collapse and drought swept central India.
That set of circumstances caused a wave of silver to come out of India and crush the
1997 bull market. The important lesson from that is it’s very difficult to understand
the total supply of silver and what price it will come to market at.
The second thing is, in terms of production, there’s very little primary silver production.
Most of it is produced as a consequence, as a byproduct of copper lead and zinc production,
and so to understand future production trends in silver, the silver prices is irrelevant.
The copper price, the zinc price, and the lead price are what you have to look at.
Those facts, the uncertainties associated with supply, make me prefer platinum and palladium
where you can see the above ground inventories and you can see the fabrication demand on
a manual basis. I understand the silver thesis. I understand the thesis of silver is poor
man’s gold. I like it. I like the narrative. I like the
story. I don’t like the uncertainty. Dan of FMT: That’s great. Last question, really,
is a total selfish question on my part because I wanna ask you about the government and it
has to do with…I took on a new editorial role at a website and it has [inaudible 11:54]
and I’m talking about raising my kids in this corrupt environment. You have some great thoughts
on wealth and being independent of the government and you actually despise it from what I understand.
My question is, when my son asks me if the police are good or bad guys and I told him
everybody has their own choice, but either way, even if you’re a great cop, you have
to enforce unjust laws like somebody relieving pain from chronic ailments.
I know this is a big long question, but what is the government to you? And how would you
teach it to somebody? Rick: I think your response to your son was
especially profound. I have noticed many government employees I’ve met, including most policeman
I’ve met, are very good people. I regard them uniformly as misguided, because I think that
the institution that they work for, be it the government itself or the police, is evil.
I don’t think of them as evil people which would suggest from my point of view they’re
misguided people. I think it’s very important to stress to your
son the difference between good people and an evil vocation. I think that second thing
is that you need very early to introduce your children to the concept that involuntary servitude,
which is what taxation is, is immoral. That it’s slavery.
I think it’s important to explain to young people that the extortion by force, threat
or fraud of the fruits of an ordinary citizens’ labor, irrespective of whether it’s of 12
months duration or 4 months duration, is slavery. From my point of view, in order for young
person to be in favor of government they have to believe that their interpretation of someone’s
needs gives them a call on somebody else’s means. In other words, before they say that
they’re in favor of government they have to say that they’re in favor of slavery.
That puts a young person in a fairly unique position. The young person is going to say,
“But its not really slavery because we voted on it.” There was a vote in the 13 colonies
back in the old days so they decided that the vote didn’t apply to either women or blacks.
It’s the same kind of vote. There was a vote in Germany, I think it was in 1943, that brought
in Hitler. Just because slavery is popular doesn’t mean it’s right.
Dan of FMT: Rick thank you so much for your time and wisdom.
Rick: Thanks
for the questions.

25 thoughts on “Why to Love the Silver Bear Market – Rick Rule Interview

  1. Rick does shows all over TV about Gold, Bering Sea Gold, Gold Rush, Jungle Gold,,etc, fit the bill as "showing up on the front page."?

  2. The manipulation needs to end. Cheap coins is only good for so long. We have to be able to spend them at some point. Meanwhile the bankers continue to amass a fortune. We shouldn't be celebrating cheap coins forever

  3. Everytime I listen Rule or Sprott. My BS  meyer goes off the chart. Somthing about these guys I do not trust. I could be wrong but not often.

  4. Rick Rule and Marin Katusa are my rock stars!!  I appreciate that you interview them on a regular basis and that they are always willing to give their insight on the subjects you bring up.  Rick Rules wisdom and experience from decades of cyclical markets is priceless!!

  5. Rick Rule likes platinum over silver? Wow. The above ground inventories I heard are empty. Now miners want to hold the silver till the cost of production is at least met. Ore grades of silver is even down, so, my purchases are for silver. Platinum is for catalytic converters and when the economy collapses, who's going to be buying new vehicles?

  6. Thank you for bringing Rick on your channel again.  Without somebody like Mr. Rule I may have sold my position a while ago.  He is definitely giving me the "courage to stay the trade" and hopefully put my family in a better position financially. 

  7. The police only serves and protects the rich people and the politicians. The rest of the people gets beaten, robbed, cage, or kill by the police. They will shoot and kill unarmed children they have no problem with killing adults.police has the right to kill anyone & get away with it. All they have to say is I fear for my life The police is more dangerous than any terrorist The police have one of the safest jobs in America.

  8. Smart bloke that Rick Rule, Speaks a lot of sense and seems to have careful considered opinions.  Going to have to watch some more videos with him I think.

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