Weekly Forex Forecast: March 19 – 23 2018 – Forex Trading Guide


welcome everyone to our weekly forex
market analysis call and this is in preparation for trading for March 19th
our trading for the week of March 19th to 23rd 2018 just a quick disclaimer
before we get started trading is a risky business so please be careful with their
money as much as there is a chance to profit there is also a chance to incur
heavy losses so please be mindful of that when taking trades and also this is
for educational purposes only and it’s not intended to be investing advice so
let’s start off as usual by taking a look at our forex factory calendar here
and then we’ll go into sorry my brain is not working here we go all right so
we’ll start off by taking a look at our forex factory calendar and then we will
go into our charts to begin the week off here we do have this Bank of Japan
summary of opinions that comes out on Sunday which is essentially Monday
morning for them other than that we have g20 meetings so when we have any of
these meetings even though there isn’t any particular speech that we have to
worry about there are comments that will be made and there will be interviews
from different leaders so as a result of that we could see market prices move as
a result of those comments so it’s very important to pay attention to your news
feed to see if anybody is saying anything in terms of the monetary policy
economics or you know how the economy is doing that type of stuff because they
can have market implications so keep an eye on that we do have monetary policy
meeting minutes for Australia here right now Australia is not raising rates but
again it’s how they are going to talk about it that’s what’s going to make a
difference so that will be important for Australian dollar going into Tuesday
here we do have numbers for British pound CPI 4 for UK
has been quite good so looks like we’re looking for a slight decrease here but
CPI or inflation is one of the numbers that the central banks will pay great
deal of attention to and as the inflation goes up there’s pressure on to
raise interest rates so this is what Bank of England is facing at the moment
they have not raised rates however as the CPI numbers and other data numbers
come in positive there’s more pressure on Bank of England to raise rates so to
keep that in mind and if the numbers come in negative will we’re likely to
see British Pound Drop but if they come in positive above expectations here
British Pound will get a boost so keep that in mind there and then we have g20
meetings still continuing on on Tuesday here as well and then we have more data
for UK here for the pound average earnings index and employment data so
this is kind of like the non-farm payroll numbers that come out for the US
again a very important number to keep an eye on so there are actually three
different numbers that we have to watch here average earnings indexes the
earnings so basically per hour earnings if they go up that’s they’ll be positive
for the British Pound and then we also have like the unemployment rate and the
claimant comes charge so those are employment figures and these will be
important if the you know if the employment is going up it will be
positive for British pound and further we have another major announcement which
will be our FOMC statement and federal funds rate so looks like we are looking
for our first increase from the Fed for this year so if they don’t do an
interest rate hike that will be negative for the for the US dollar because the
market is expecting the interest rate hike but even more importantly market
will be paying attention or market participants will be paying attention to
what’s in the FOMC statement and also what the Fed has to say in terms of the
economy their projections of where we see economy going and also about the
inflation because that has been a sticking point for a Fed inflation
hasn’t gone up the way it has gone up for example in UK or it hasn’t kept in
line with the Fed expectations so we need to pay attention to this because it
won’t just be about the interest rate hike a lot of it will have to do with
the comments that come out either in the FOMC statement or the press conference
so that will be important and then we have another central bank here a Reserve
Bank of New Zealand they have their race statement they’re not expected to change
the interest rate at this point but again even though Australia and New
Zealand are keeping their interest rate steady although Canada has Canada and us
have raised them so they there is pressure on these two countries to raise
rates so there will be so we have to pay attention to what they say in their
statements so we have again so we have two central banks they’re going into
Thursday we have PMI numbers PMI it is a leading indicator for retail sales and
GDP numbers so it is important to pay attention to and then we have third
central bank which is our Bank of England here they’re going to come out
with a monetary policy statement bank rate here interest rate is not expected
to increase at this point but again like I said with the positive data coming out
of UK there is pressure on Bank of England to raise rates so at this rate
at this time we’re not expecting any of the members to vote for an interest rate
hike now if this number comes different than what’s expected we are likely to
see movement in the British Pound here so again keep that in mind we have a lot
of central bankers our central bank statements this week so I expect a lot
of volatility in the market so it may be important to keep your trade sights
small especially when we have these kind of events coming out expect volatility
and in position size and you know being very
careful if you’re trading those movements just be mindful of that on
Friday here we have CPI again this is our inflation number and co retail sales
numbers for Canada which will be important and then we have durable goods
orders again that will be important as well going into Saturday we are changing
the day light times will shift again for our UK or European partners as well okay
so that’s as far as our news is concerned so tons of high volatility
news coming up so just be careful so let’s start off by taking a look at our
British sorry we’re gonna look at euro dollar first we’ll start off with the
euro dollar so here we see two different we’re seeing a bit of a downwards trend
here for euro dollar but overall if you were to take this away your dollar has
been trading in this range for quite some time it is still not out of the
range so right now because we are in the middle of the range and for last two
weeks we have seen this pin bars so I am expecting price to drop so the first
target would be one point twenty two hundred level and second target actually
this one could go even lower into 1.21 60 or 50 level here so let’s say 60
however we do need to be mindful of this 120 200 level so 120 200 has proved to
be an important level so at this point I am expecting for Euro to drop but do
keep in mind we have FOMC which could change things so that’s the type of move
I am expecting a bit of a push back and then a drop so the first target will be
one point 2200 second target one point 2150 and now if the price does break
through this 12150 only there would I expect that final drop into 1.21
hundred but there is a lot of support if we were to take all these lines away
here there’s a lot of support at this level because we haven’t broken this in
several weeks now price has just traded sideways so we could get push up from
the bottom of this range so I would be very careful with with that level one
point 2200 level before looking for a breakout trade I would be looking to see
if there are buyers sitting at that level so for now the bias is to the
downside I’m looking for a bit of a push up and then a drop for a euro dollar
so biases to the downside pound here pound has been interesting it has just
traded in this range for the most part here so let’s take a look at our weekly
as we can see price has pushed up but hasn’t really done much so this has been
a relatively small move for a British Pound it’s just sort of stuck in this
level now what will have an impact here will be the Bank of England statement
and how those how you know what they have to say about it
and in terms of the bias here it’s still sitting in this slightly downwards
trending move here so I will expect price to basically come back into the
bottom of this range at 1:37 20 level back towards the basically go back into
the range and not looking for a huge break out unless Bank of England comes
out with a hawkish a sentiment that will change things and then in that case this
could go up so for now though I’m looking for Christ to test the bottom
here into 1.37 20 level and now the second scenario would be with Bank of
England being bullish in that case we I would like to see a break above 140 and
if you get that break about 140 so potentially even 140 80 so if you get
that break above actually like the 140 levels if we take a look here there’s
this support level which is also acting as our resistance
so if you see a break above 140 then very likely we could go to this 143
level or 1.43 30 level which is the top here of this previous move so right now
we’re just sort of sideways so if we take a look this is the same move that
we were looking at in our euro dollar as well
prices range bound for now for the most part for the several for last several
weeks now and it hasn’t been able to break out of this range either to the
upside or downside so right now we are smack in the middle of that range that’s
why I’m expecting price to come down but if it break above 140 then I’m looking
for it to go towards the top of the range that’s what we’re looking for
pound Aussie here took quite a beating this week I was looking for price to
move lower just based on the daily here because price was getting stuck at a one
zero point seventy nine hundred level so I was expecting move down but this is
quite a move to the downside so from our weekly perspective now we have closed
into the bottom and now we are at that critical support resistance level where
the price turned a few weeks ago however it seems like the pressure is to the
downside so we could see a move further to the downside here next target would
be 0.75 70 and we could go all the way into the bottom here into 0.75 zero zero
level but first I would like to see a break just with any kind of moves like
this I look for a break a pull back into the previous support turning into
resistance and then a drop because this has been quite a move to the downside we
could see price do a back test or push up here so we could get this type of a
move and then a break to the downside so that’s what I am looking for again with
any of the US dollar crosses fair we’ll play a big role and either way so
if it’s get stuck here we could see that going into the Fed move here
same thing with here with New Zealand dollar we have seen quite quite a move
to the downside this has been a bit of it has been range bound as well just
like some of the other US dollar crosses that we are seeing and now we have
closed into this bottom here bottom of the support or into support here I am
looking for a further move to the downside into 0.71 20 level here again
Fed rate statement will have an important and will happen have an impact
on this so be mindful of that but for now just based on the technicals here I
am looking for New Zealand dollar to drop further dollar cad just with the
commodity currencies moving lower dollar cat tends to move in the opposite
direction because US dollar is in the frontier so with this one a big bullish
flows to the upside and based on that I am looking for a further move to the
upside but just like there are others because we have seen a big move here we
could get a pullback into 1:30 level or even lower into this one
29:20 level so I would look for a pullback before a continuation of the
move to the upside here so I would look for a move like that so pull back push
up retest of the resistance and then a break and then a further move to the
upside so biases to the upside for dollar cad
here Swiss franc here your Swiss franc sorry hasn’t done much if we take a look
at the daily it’s been stuck in that very very narrow range right over here
hasn’t done much but the bias still remains to the upside so based on the
daily here as we can see this is the move that we have currently and
generally the move results like that so when you have a bullish move up
consolidate sideways then we are looking for a
continuation to the upside so that’s what’s playing out on the daily looking
at the weekly here we are still into that that bullish move so this looks
bullish the next target that I’m looking for here will be to the upside one point
one eight twenty level so the bias for now is to the upside targeting the
previous high pound Swiss franc here this one is looking quite bullish here
as well okay so for this one the next move will be to that to the top here
looking for a further bullishness we have had two weeks of bullish candle
closes so it looks like the momentum is still there it’s closed right into the
top there so still momentum in the pair I’m looking for move into 1.30 480 level
so the bias is to the upside dollar Swiss franc here this one also has
closed with the bullish pin bar here and as such I will be looking for a further
move to the upside 0.96 40 will be the target again just like with with other
crosses us crosses we talked about FOMC will play a role in this so it’s just be
mindful of that but for now the biases to the upside with a target of 0.96 40
level let’s go into the yen crosses here yen crosses did give us some nice moves
we saw price coming to resistance and then price have has dropped so we have
this doji or a pin bar based on this I am looking for price to drop further so
for pound yen the target would be 145 hundred one forty five point zero zero
which is at the bottom of this pin here so if you take a look at the daily price
went up and then it has pushed back now having said that we’ll have to keep an
eye on Bank of England because that could change things complete
so news can completely change what levels we are looking at always remember
that but based on just purely technicals here I’m looking for price to drop so
essentially we have gone into this previous support and resistance level
price has rejected that level and now it has it has closed in a doji or a pin bar
so I’m looking for price to drop further euro yen here euro yen we have had some
nice moves through the downside this one as well has closed with so this one has
a close as well to the downside so the bias is to the downside here as well and
in this case the bias will be to the downside and I’m looking at 120 850
level to the downside again I always like to see a break of these levels to
ensure that the buy that it’s continuing so biases to the downside looking for
140 850 to the downside here for euro yen dollar yen here dollar yen so all
the yen crosses have essentially weakened since we had a look at these
last it has as we can see this one has been sideways it’s been holding below
this 107 40 target level here and now we have seen a bearish candle close I’m
looking for price to drop in this the first target will be the retest of the
bottom here at 105 35 level or even 105 let’s say 30 level here and once that
breaks I’m looking for price to drop further one of 430 will be the target so
just be mindful of the range bound moves because what can happen is one of these
we have seen a lot of these crosses these pairs have been sideways in a
range bound move so when you see price coming into the bottom of the range
there can be buyers sitting there or pending order sitting there to push the
price up so be mindful of that but based on this I am looking for
to drop first target would be 105 30 level and then 104 30 level to the
downside and if that continues we could even have a lower target of 103 point
zero zero to the downside Ozzy yen has dropped a lot just because
Ozzy dollar has dropped now we are right into the bottom there into that support
so again this was also sideways as we can see it stayed within these two
levels for the last four weeks here and hasn’t broken out so now we are pushing
into the bottom into the support so this was an important support resistance
level now again because it was an important support resistance that will I
would expect the price to push up a bit before it drops but it is pushing into
the support which means there’s momentum to the downside so even that retracement
may not go too far and the next target here is 79 point 65 level which is the
bottom here and so the bias will be to the downside for Aussie yen last one
here cadion cadion just like all the other crosses here we have seen a drop
and the bias is to the downside here and the next target we are coming into
support right over here so that will be important this price could turn there
the next target would be 79 20 level to the downside so bias still remains to
the downside but when we are coming into important support like that a lot of
times we’ll get pull backs and then a move to the downside so that’s the type
of move we can look for overall the bias is to the downside for cadion as well so
gold let’s take a look at gold gold here has weakened further
last week we were looking for further move to the downside we have that now
based on the candle close here weekly candle close oh sorry that’s a daily
candle close and so based on the weekly can oppose this is bearish and looking
for a further move to the downside here now with this
one keep in mind FOMC will impact gold as
well because gold is as we can see it’s in US dollars so when US dollar goes up
Gold goes down when used Allah Goes Down gold goes up
so if FOMC comes out negative all the dollar crosses will go up including gold
so just keep that in mind but based on this one here this is
bearish as well and as you see gold has been trading sideways as well in this in
this range here so a lot of stuff has been range-bound over the last little
while in this case we can look at this move here so see how this move is
similar to the one right here so we were seeing move this out of the way so here
we saw a price sort of do one of these so following that trend line here this
is a little bit steeper but it’s it’s looks similar where price is reacting to
this top level here and it’s not able to break higher now FOMC like I said will
play an important role so if FOMC comes in hawkish I would
expect a move like that so we could see a drop in gold as a result of bullish
our more hawkish FOMC but right now it seems like it’s pointing downwards
weekly candle closes bearish so I’m looking for price will drop into twelve
ninety three point fifty level and then if let’s say for some reason Fed is
extremely hawkish it could drop even further so see this big move down to the
downside we could see a drop like that on the side as well one 1293 point 52 did I put this line in
here for a particular reason oh this is the next level I’m looking for it to go
to look at the support here so I’m just looking for the next support or
resistance level and their support here as well are as
since here which I’m expecting to turn into support so that’s how I’m marking
my lines is just purely support resistance nothing really fancy about it
so overall the Momentum’s to the downside so I’m expecting the price to
drop from here um any other questions are anything you want me to look at
before we wrap it up alright so if not we will wrap it up and if anybody is
interested in joining my signal service if you like the weekly analysis that we
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come join me in the trade in the trade room there let’s take a look at pound
New Zealand charts okay let’s take a look
pound New Zealand pound Ozzy let’s see if I have that chart open your pound CAD
your OCAD pound New Zealand here we go how New Zealand is looking bullish we
haven’t been able to it is range bound as well but that’s a very bullish move
considering all these previous ones so that’s it shows momentum to the upside
looking for price to go higher into this one point 9500 level into the top of
this in this top of the range essentially so we’ve sat in this range
for quite some time now it’s pushing up higher so looking for it to go into the
top of the of the range euro CAD and euro Aussie euro can’t here we go euro
CAD is so with this one so it’s looking quite bullish we are into previous
resistance so price had turned here and we had this weekly pin bar that did not
play out and now we are pushing into the highs so I think we need to go even
further out let me zoom out see where we are headed here this one looks like that
looks like the next support or resistance level so one point sixty to
forty level probably would push that up higher into 50 level so 160 to 50 level
will be the next target to the upside it is pushing it into the high so that
looks quite bullish so with this one as well anytime there’s a big breakout I
don’t like to take the breakout I like to trade the next move to the
outside which is basically you wait for the breakout wait for it to pull back
and then take if it stays or if it holds above that level then I look for a move
to the upside so with this one this is looking bullish so the way I would take
a look at this would be to see what happens right over here first of all now
if let’s say it does this goes back up breaks out then I’m looking to this
level which is one point sixty one forty level for price to hold above that and
then a continuation move to the upside but right now it is looking quite
bullish and part of the reason has been because the commodities have been very
very bearish this week so everything has dropped gold oil all the commodities
have been sort of soft this week and there was another one euro CAD and Euro
ozzie so we looked at euro CAD euro ozzie okay your Aussie here we go big
move to the upside here take a look this looks quite bullish here as well we are
pushing into the highs there is room to go up further here next target will be
one point sixty one sixty level so this is looking quite bullish with this one
we could get a pullback and then a further move to the upside 1.58 twenty
level looks like a good level for price to retrace back to so something like
this test the high breakout weight and then a further continuation move to the
upside so overall bias looks to be to the
upside and looking quite bullish target would be one point sixty one eighty
level to the upside so this is looking bullish as well alright so I think
that’s all the questions so you have a wonderful weekend I will see you
again next time then bye for now

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