Weekly Forex Forecast: January 8 – 12 2018 – Forex Trading Guide


welcome everyone to our first weekly
analysis meeting for 2018 and this is in preparation for trading on January 8 to
the 12th so week of January 8 so just a quick disclaimer as usual before we get
started this is for educational purposes only trading is a risky business so
please be careful with your money as you a trade alright so as usual we will
start off by taking a look at our for X Factor cat for a sorry forex factory
calendar here so starting the week off your first thing we have is Bank of
Canada business Outlook Survey so Canadian dollar has been doing quite
well oil has been going up so as a result all the commodity currencies have
been doing well so we’ll see what Bank of Canada comes out with so the last
time a Bank of Canada did their rate announcement they essentially last two
times they kept the interest rates low or the same and they started raising the
rates in 2017 last two times were the same and what they said essentially was
that they were concerned about the state of the economy Canadian economy so this
will give us a better idea of how the economy is doing and if the economy is
doing well then going forward that whole interest rate hikes idea may start kind
of coming back into the market so that’s what we are going to keep an eye on this
so if this is well then it will be positive for the Canadian dollar because
the market will start expecting another interest rate hike in 2018 and other
than that we have a couple of FOMC members speaking here so on Tuesday not
much in terms of red news we have trade balance numbers out of the eurozone but
nothing major here Wednesday here we have manufacturing production numbers
for British pound again British Pound has done quite well as well u.s. dollar
has done performed poorly here and that’s why all the different currencies
have done well so here manufacturing production numbers come in positive that
will be positive for the British Pound here and then we have crude oil
inventories like I said quantities have done well and if crude oil does well
then Canadian dollar is likely to rise with that and the other commodity
currencies as well also retail sales number for Australia that will have an
impact on Australian dollar and then going into Thursday here even though it
isn’t it’s not marked as Fred but Bank of England credit conditions survey and
will be an important one an ECB monetary policy meeting account them these will
be positive sorry these will be impactful on the market as well even
though they’re not marked and read because this is the this is basically
the minutes of the discussion that the ECB had amongst themselves that’s what
it’s captured here and really what the market is looking at is you know things
around interest rate hikes ECB hasn’t done any interest rate hikes but they
have they are more concerned about the asset purchase program so are they gonna
keep pumping money into the economy that’s what will be important here to
see if any changes will be coming down the line in that and then PPI numbers
these are precursor to our retail sales numbers so these are leading indicators
will be important for the US dollar here um another thing here federal budget
even though it’s not marked red but usually this will have an impact on the
US dollar because what we’re looking for here is how bad is it
how much a deficit is the u.s. running them higher the deficit the bad the you
know the worse it is for the US dollar so this is something to keep in mind
here as well and then we have another FOMC member speaking we have Chinese
trade balance number here so this trade balance number any of the Chinese number
generally will have an impact on Australia and New Zealand because those
two countries are big trade partners with China they Australia New Zealand
export a lot of stuff to China so as a result of that if these Chinese number
and only come in negative it has negative impact on those two currencies
so keep that in mind on Friday we
CPI numbers is the inflation number which the Fed will monitor so this is an
important numbers of core CPI and CPI as well as the retail sales numbers will be
important for the US so all in all we don’t have a ton of critical data so
that you don’t see a lot of red so I’m not expecting too many fireworks here
this week which is good all right so now let’s go on to our charts here okay well
start off with the euro US dollar here your US dollar we have a pin bar here
small doji as we can see we are into the P into the previous resistance level so
this will be a critical point for Euro so as long as euro stays below one point
two zero eight six level here this support a resistance level we are
looking for it to come back a lower so this one I’m looking for it to drop the
target here would be 18 I’m about the 1850 level so that’s what I’m looking at
but we may get into trouble right here so the price is not able to break below
1950 it could do another leg to the upside so that’s something to watch out
for so I could do one of these and then go test it and if the US dollars not
doing so well so we could see one of those as well so that will be the risk
that we’ll have to keep in mind but right now based on the technicals here
looks like we are seeing a bit of a double top performing here we have a
little doji pin bar and I’m looking for price to drop first target one point one
nine five zero and second target one point one eight five zero so those are
the two targets I am my bias is bearish on euro US dollar for the upcoming week
pound here pound is in an interesting situation so if we were to take this
away as we can see we are in this range here so price had gone up pushed back
down to the previous support level and then has pushed back up so in this case
we do see bullishness here but the bullishness is starting to kind of wear
off here so we are looking into a similar situation in pound as in euro
here right as well so if you were to take these levels away as you can see we
are in this range so now the price is at the top of the range and that’s another
reason I’m looking for this to drop here as well and with the pound it’s not
exactly at the top so which means that we do have some room for this to go
higher so I’m going to treat this as a range and I’m looking for price to hit
this 1.30 657 level and from there my base case scenario would be Christ those
up and then does this back into the range so I’m looking for price to react
at the previous highs here and then pull back into the range now the risk would
again be that price breaks out and then we could see it go to the next important
resistance level which is at one point four zero either actually let me draw a
proper support resistance line here sorry one point 3900 let me take this
away okay so sorry 1.30 867 ish level so let’s say
13850 so that would be the level that it could go to but my base case scenario
what I’m expecting would be for the price to go up hit the high and then
kind of come back into the range before it decides to do something else so
that’s what I’m looking for so in this case looking for price to go a little
bit higher in to 136 57 ish level and then drop from there ah see here Ozzy
has been extremely strong all the commodity currencies Australian dollar
New Zealand dollar Canadian dollar they’ve all done really well over the
last few weeks actually so in this case this looks bullish we are still in it in
that bullishness here looking for price to go up higher in this case we are at
78 60 here looking for price to go into this 60 sorry 80 50 level so there is
some room for it to go higher still and this is where we so this is what I’m
gonna do so those are the two targets so first target is 79 50 second target is
80 80 those are the two targets to the upside but Aussie US dollar looks
bullish New Zealand dollar here New Zealand is also New Zealand Dollars also
looking bullish the next level I’d be looking for would be 73 80 level so back
into these previous highs that is a nice bullish candle looking for it to
continue higher so BIOSes to the upside for New Zealand dollar dollar cad here
we had a nice triple top here and since then it’s dropped fair bit and as I said
a Canadian dollar has been quite strong so I’m looking for it to continue
so dollar cad I’m looking for price to drop here and the target who here would
be one point twenty one hundred level it could take a little bit of time to get
there but that’s the target so it still looks very strongly
barish because Canadian dollar is strong so the US dollar is weak as a result
dollar CAD is the biases to the downside looking for it to drop further into this
1.21 hundred level so bearish on that let’s take a look at this Swiss franc
here okay so this one here the bias is still to the upside as we can see we’re
still seeing that upwards trend in this one now it is a compressed move though
as we can see the price is going higher but it hasn’t really gone much much
further in the last few weeks so the difference between New Zealand dollar
for example see how the candles are spread apart and they are pushing higher
we even see a little bit of gaps here whereas in Euro Swiss franc price is
getting compressed and this is what it usually looks like price will look like
it’s pushing up higher but it doesn’t really get anywhere and that’s what we
are seeing right now so at this point we do see a rejection of this 1.17 80 level
so right now I’m looking for price this little triangle to break here so in this
case my bias is to the downside so we could see one of these a break up the
triangle and then a drop and price going into this level so that’s what I’m
looking for the bias on this will be to the downside and the target here will be
1.15 80 level so I’m looking for it to drop back into this previous level here
but we need to see a clear break of this trendline
because otherwise it could just keep hugging the trendline and go up higher okay so that’s our that’s a euro Swiss
franc pound Swiss franc in this case we just sideways nothing much is going on
here completely sideways in this range so I would say price is in the right in
the middle of the range very neutral this could go either way
considering a bit of a range bond market not not taking this into account I would
say it may just trickle down towards the bottom here 1.29 50 level but I’m
neutral on pounds Swiss franc dollar Swiss franc here this is looking bearish
now so let’s take a look all right so we had a big drop and now we have a neutral
close for on the weekly candle so overall even though the bias is to the
downside here this neutral candle could change things so if price does not break
below this one sorry 96 so let’s in 9700 level if it stays above the 9700 level
it could start going back higher here so I would be careful with this one as well
the bias is neutral for this i’m greg which one are you talking about
so you’re saying a significant retracement $4 Frank a retracement to
the upside here we could because it’s very neutral so it could go either way
so right now if you take a look at it it hasn’t done much so this is where we sit
currently so let’s remove everything else so this is where we are so for the
last since October it’s been range bound between these two levels so between 1.00
and 9700 so now we are at the bottom of that range again so this is where it had
turned now we are the bottom of the range so it could pull back I am at this
point we’ll just have to see what happens here but it has made lower high
here and it has made a lower low so that’s why I would be careful and I
would go to the daily chart and you know as we are trading it on the more of a
daily basis that will go down to the daily chart and see how price reacts
here but overall here we are sort of into the bottom of that range here and
it could go up higher but the problem is u.s. dollar is very weak at the moment
and and that’s what’s causing the problem here so Swiss franc hasn’t
really done much if we take a look at pound Swiss it’s going sideways euro
Swiss is going sideways then what’s causing dollars mr. drop is the weakness
is an in dollar not so much the strength in the Swiss franc and if the US dollar
does not gain strength across the board so if euro dollar pounds dollar they
keep on going up this will drop whereas we are seeing how euro is at a double
top right and we are seeing pound is kind of coming into that a resistance
level so in this case if the dollar were to were able to gather some strength
here we could see it go back but right now it’s very neutral which means it
could continue lower as well and that’s why I would just watch
this before trading but yes if dollar were to make a comeback this could go
back up and then I’d be looking back towards the top of the range here for
this so we’ll just leave that as as a neutral so let’s go into the yen crosses
here looks like I’ve got all kinds of support resistance levels spread out
let’s remove those okay but looking bullish as we can see here
this is also a little bit of a range bound move since August here price has
been trading into this range it is pushing into the top of the range here
and it’s not showing us behavior normal range bound behavior where it would you
know be trying to drop so in this case we have to first take a look at the
breakout first so we have to sleep see if it will break out because it is
pushing into the top of the range so if it breaks out I’m looking for 150 6.00
as the next target but very important because it is at the top of the range
the last two times price came in to this level it bounced off of this so in this
case we have a little bit of a triangle here which means it could go higher but
again I would watch out this is definitely a range bound market at this
point so we’ll have to see if the top will play a role or wait for a breakout
my base case scenario is for a breakout so I’m looking for a breakout and then
move to 150 600 but we do have to wait for that breakout and not just you know
getting ahead of this because being a range bound move it can just come back
towards the middle of the range so that looks bullish at the moment how euro yen
here here again we are in – we are into this previous support resistance level
and the can of close is bullish to neutral here so I’m looking for price –
if the euro starts to drop this would drop here as well but
again just like the US dollar Japanese yen has been very very weak everything
has gone up against the yen so that causes a bit of a problem so not only is
it the euro weakness that will come into play here it will be the yen weakness as
well and yen has been just been weak at this point so that’s something to keep
in mind so at this point because it’s a neutral kind of close I am looking for
price to react here at 130 680 level and see if it will come lower but if the yen
stays weaker I would be looking for price to go into 130 900 level but again
it is at important support resistance level so the first base case in area
will be that I’m looking for a reaction so I’m looking for this type of a setup
so my bias will be neutral to bearish slightly but again I’m gonna be very I’m
gonna be watching this 136 80 level you know very closely Aussie and it’s just
been a one-way move here Australian dollar has been very strong and yen has
been very weak as a result we have this big bullish trend going on here for the
last several weeks it looks bullish right now so I am
looking for price to go higher and the target here will be this high which is
about 90 point 37 level so I’m looking for price to go up higher
looks bullish at the moment this is a very bullish candle so bias is to the
upside for Aussie yen dollar yen da Lian very very sideways not much going on
here this looks kind of like the Swiss franc that we were sorry pounds Swiss
franc that we were looking at sideways move and neutral so very neutral on this
it’s holding here so this could go hires is sort of like a bullish pin bar but
it’s the middle here hasn’t really done much
so at this point it could go towards one hundred and fourteen point thirty level
however it is sideways I could sit there till either US dollar strengthens or
Japanese yen weakens further CAG yen here this is again just like the
other commodity currencies looking very strong and in this case the bias is
bullish we are heading into the high here as well this previous support
resistance level which is also as our support here turned resistance here so I
would look for a reaction so the Japanese yen crosses are at some
important levels right now and like I said if things stay the way they are
which means the young is weak and everything else is strong against it the
trend is likely to continue upwards here so first scenario first thing to keep in
mind would be can the price break this 9180 level if it does I’m looking for
price to continue further into ninety three point 37 level which is which is
the high here but again we have to be very mindful of this 9180 level because
we are very close to it so I’m bullish on carry on New Zealand dollar here this
has been very bullish as well and at this point it looks bullish so we could
pretty much get rid of all these levels here for the several weeks here it has
been bullish and looking for further move to the upside 82 20-ish level will
be my next target to the upside so this looks quite bullish here um all right so
I think gold is what we need here let me see gold here we go
Gold is looking bullish so commodities have have been doing well they have been
bullish so gold is looking bullish next target will be the top of this pin here
one thirteen thirty eight point one zero that is the target to the upside
so looking quite bullish this is a very aggressive price action here so that
looks bullish let’s take a quick peek at oil here oil is looking quite bullish
here as well okay so this is this is what we have surprised broke above this
previous resistance area did a retest of this and now we are going to the next
level so with this one we are coming to a significant resistance level for oil
so that’s what I would keep in mind but right now there is still room for it to
move so we are at 61 49 and the next target is 63 here so that’s what my next
target would be which means dollar oil is re still strong and oil is strong
Gold is strong which means the commodity currencies so Canadian dollar Australian
dollar New Zealand dollar these will be stronger as well and use dollar is weak
which means Aussie dollar cad dollar will be bullish so that’s what I am
seeing here commodity strong commodity currency
strong so Ozzie and Newton in the end week as well all right any other
questions before we wrap it up here alright perfect so
we’ll wrap it up if you guys have any if you guys are interested in taking the
courses you can check out my website trading with Venus com I offer
fundamentals course which is demystifying the fundamentals and I also
offer technical analysis course which is based on price action which is what we
were looking at so if you guys would like to join me you can do that and we
have a trade room that I trade the London session on you guys can join me
in back if you like and all the information can be found our trading
with Venus comp forward slash courses so you guys have a wonderful trading week
and I’ll be back with another weekly analysis next week bye everyone

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