Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, XAUUSD (November 18 – 22, 2019)


– Hi everyone, welcome to another Weekly Forex Forecast. My name is Justin Bennett
with Daily Price Action and in today’s video we’re
gonna talk about the EURUSD. The pound USD, the dollar yen, the New Zealand dollar versus
the USD, and also gold. That’s one I haven’t
talked about in a while, but you are gonna wanna keep an eye on this pattern I’m about to show you. Let’s get started right now. (upbeat music) A quick disclaimer that today’s video is for educational purposes only. All views are my opinion and are not intended as investment advice. Forex is a high-reward, high-risk business and you should not trade
with borrowed money or money you cannot afford to lose. See the description of this
video for the full disclaimer. Before we begin, be sure to hit
that subscribe button below, and also click the bell icon so you get notified every
time I post these videos. So the first currency payer
we’re gonna talk about today is the EURUSD, and I mentioned this one a couple of times recently,
including last week, where we are watching for our bounds from this 1.0990 to 1.1020 support area. So, notice how both of these
are key horizontal levels, based on recent price action. And, 1.0990 was especially significant because it was where the pair
bounced earlier in October. So, remember that we had this breakout of this short term downtrend
right here on this candle. So, once the pair broke out there, it then rotated lower, retested this level right here, and it also retested
1.0990, which is, again, a key horizontal level. So, this 1.0990 area was significant, and it’s one I mentioned
a few times recently, that we were watching for. So, this low on Thursday
was one pip below 1.0990. Furthermore, if you notice
the range on Thursday was actually a bullish engulfing candle. So, the high and the low of Thursday engulfed the high
and the low of Wednesday. And, this right here is a bi-signal that I look for, just like a pin bar. So, myself and other
Daily Price Action members were able to get long here,
right in the 110 area. And the reason I bought this early is because I saw, on Thursday,
I saw the pair come down, and retest 1.0990, start
to bounce, and then, right through here there was
a sudden surge in demand. And, when I saw that, I decided to buy, with a small starter
position, with the idea that I would add to it as we
got a close, back above 1.1020, and perhaps back above 1.1070
sometime this coming week. So, for the week ahead, I do wanna see the EURUSD stay constructive
and continue to push higher. So, I don’t wanna see
the pair rotate lower and come back and retest 1.1020. I wanna see it stay above some of these recent lows and highs. So, notice how, if we just
look at these candles, through this area, notice
how we have this low, and these two highs, so right
around 1.1030, perhaps 1.1035. So, I do wanna see the
euro stay constructive, and I wanna see buyers continue
to push the pair higher, this week, up into that 1.1070 level. Now, just based on the price
action here, at 1.1070. This is going to be a key
battle zone for the EURUSD. So, I do expect sellers to come out and try to defend 1.1070, and, of course, it’s going to take a
daily close above that, in order to expose these recent highs, up around 1.1170/80. Alternatively, if we do see the euro start to rotate lower and weaken, and also start to take out some of
these new support levels, especially 1.1020. So, if it starts to crash,
and it re exposes 1.0990, I do think that would
be a sign of weakness, however, as I mentioned last week, it’s going to take a daily close below this ascending channel support, in order to negate the bullish scenario. And, if that does happen,
if we do see a close below the support area, it
would also re expose some of these year-to-date lows around 1.09. Next up, we have the British pound versus the USD, or GBPUSD. And, this is one that
is still consolidating between 1.2770 and 1.2980. So, I’ve talked about this,
now, a couple of times, including in last weeks video. Notice how ever since the pair broke above this 1.2770 area, based
on this low back here, as well as several highs. Since the pair closed above this level, it has been consolidating
for a potential push higher. So, I also talked about 1.2770 in the last few weekly forecasts. And, I mentioned that I did expect buyers to try to defend 1.2770 as support. So, notice how this
recent dip into that level did catch a bid and pushed higher. However, it is still going
to take, in my opinion, a break of this range before we really see the pound start to move again. So, if we see a daily
close above this area, just below 1.30, it would expose 1.3170. So, notice how we have several
highs through this area. And, if we see a daily close below this 1.2770 support level, it would expose 1.2570, based on several lows back here, as well as this high,
this high, and then also, this bounce from 1.2570. So, as of right now,
for the British pound, I’m just watching and waiting to see which way this decides to break. I will say that based on
this short term uptrend, so, we have higher lows, this
is a potential higher low, but we also have this
higher high recently. So, based on this short term uptrend, and also based on the fact
that we have this 800 pip rally and buyers are refusing to back down. So, since we have this rally, the pair has consolidated nicely, above 1.2770. So, right now, this does look constructive for the British pound,
so I’d be really hesitant to try to sell it, even if
we get a close below 1.2770. Ideally, I would like to see
this consolidation continue and eventually break that
area, just below 1.30. Next up, we have the
dollar yen, or USDJPY, and, this is another one that we’ve been looking at for quite some time. More specifically, we were watching for a break below this rising wedge support. So, this pattern did hint
at exhaustion from buyers. However, if you read my recent posts, I said that we also had this
conflicting bullish signal, based on this potential
inverse head and shoulders. So, notice how the
neckline of that pattern is technically still intact. So, remember, this was the
left shoulder back here. We then had the head
and the right shoulder. Now, the pair broke out
here, retested the neckline as new support, moved higher, however, then it crashed back down to the neckline, retested it again. And so, that leaves us with this indecision between breaking below this bearish pattern,
and also staying above this potential bullish pattern back here. However, despite these
conflicting signals, I did mention a week ago that I favored the bearish scenario, simply because, even if the dollar yen had
closed above this wedge top, I don’t like to buy upside
breaks of ascending channels, or ascending levels, because they do tend to trigger bull traps. So, a lot of times with a level like this, that is ascending, if
you get a close above it, and, even if the market breaks higher, a lot of times, you’ll then get an immediate crash back below that level. You’ll also, a lot of times, get something like a weekly pin bar, signaling
the supply above that area. So, remember that upside
breaks of ascending levels do tend to trigger bull
traps, and a reversal lower. So, even if the dollar yen had started to close above this
level, and make good on that inverse head and shoulders, I was more interested in a move lower. And we got the close below
wedge support on Thursday, and we also had this retest on Friday. So, as we begin the new
week, the dollar yen is technically staying
below this wedge support. So it retested it as resistance, and it closed the date,
just below that level, but it’s going to be key to
see sellers come in early this week and start to
push the pair lower. If we see the dollar yen
start to hover just below this new resistance level,
that could be a sign that this was a false break, and a close, a daily close, back
above this 108.96 area. So, that was the close here, as well as this close
and subsequent bounce. So, if we see the dollar yen start to close back above this 108.96 level, that could signal that
this was a false break, and it could also send
the dollar yen higher. But as long as we see the pair stay below this wedge bottom, so right around 108.80, for the coming week, on
a daily closing basis. Remember that I use New York close charts so that each 24 hour session opens and closes at 5:00 pm eastern. So, see the description of this video for a link to the charts that I use. So, if we see the dollar
yen remain below this level, it would still expose some
of these lower levels, including that 106.80 support level that we’ve been talkin’
about now for several weeks. Next is the New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar, or NZDUSD. This is one that I wrote about on Friday, as one to keep an eye
on for the coming week. So, we’ve had this
inverse head and shoulders that has been playing out for some time, and we’re just waiting for confirmation. So, back here we thought
that this was going to be the right shoulder, however, notice how the pair
came up, retested the neckline, formed this bearish rejection candle, and then formed this
next engulfing candle, which did hint at a pullback
into this support area. So, just because this low formed recently, does not mean that this
potential inverse head and shoulders is negated. So, a lot of times these
patterns are not always clean, and they do get a little bit messy before they are confirmed. Now, that does not mean
that the New Zealand dollar is going to push higher
this week, or next, but, I do think that, based on
this left shoulder down here, the high, and this right shoulder area, that we do still have
to respect the potential for a push higher from
the New Zealand dollar if we see a daily close
above this neckline. So remember, I trade on
a daily closing basis, which means I need to
see the pair close above this level at 5:00 pm
eastern, in order to confirm this inverse head and shoulders back here. So, be sure to visit the link below, in the comments section, to get access to the same charts I use. So, those are gonna be the same charts that you see in today’s
video, to make sure that you’re using a New York close chart, and, to also make sure that every one of these daily candles right here. So, this candle here, this candle, every single one of these
candles is a 24 hour session. So that means every week
you’re gonna get five candles, instead of the six candles
that other brokers offer. As for the NZDUSD, it is
going to take a daily close above that neckline, around 6430, to confirm the bullish reversal pattern. Until that happens
though, do expect sellers to come in and defend 6430 as resistance. So, I’m just standing
aside right now, waiting to see if we get a close above this area. And, I do also expect that any rotation into this 6320 area, to attract buyers. Now, if we see the New
Zealand dollar rotate lower, retest this area, and
eventually close below it, I do think that would
be a sign of weakness, and it could also expose some of these lows from earlier this year. But again, as long as
this pattern is intact and buyers are refusing to back down, I do think that we have to respect the potential for a move higher. A close above that
neckline would expose 6490, based on these lows back here, this low, and these two highs,
with a close above that taking on the 6580/90 area, based on some of these lows back here, and this high. Last but not least we
have gold, or XAUUSD. This is a pair that I haven’t talked about for quite some time. And the reason is because
of this choppy price action that we’ve seen now for several months. So, this is the type of
movement that I like to avoid, and, instead I wanna catch
breakouts, like we saw back here, where the pair broke out and
started to gain momentum. Or, again, back here, where
we saw this sideways movement, gold broke out and
started to surge higher. So, these are the areas
that I wanna focus on, instead of trying to trade
this area through here, this area, or this recent price action, which is just consolidation. That said, it does appear that gold is holding above that 1450 support area, that I wrote about several weeks ago. So, notice how we have
this high, as well as this one right here,
before gold broke out, and you can see how,
last week, buyers came in and supported gold right
around that 1450 area. Furthermore, if we draw our Fibonaccis onto this recent rally, so notice how the 38.2% does line up with that 1445/50 area,
right through here. So, as long as gold is
holding above this area, it does seem that this
consolidation, we’ve seen recently, could eventually trigger a breakout and a push back in to these year
to date highs, up around 1550. So, this recent consolidation also appears to have formed this falling wedge. It’s a very slight pattern. However, notice how this
low back here, this one, and this recent bounce, do form the bottom of what could be a wedge pattern. And, this high up here, as well as this one, could form the top. So I do expect any retest of
this area to attract sellers. However, on the flip side, I
do also expect any rotation into the support area, to attract buyers. So, as always, remember
that I don’t want to trade this through here, or this price action, or even this stuff through here. I wanna trade that eventual breakout for a push back into year-to-date highs. Perhaps even higher than that. So, as of right now, it is going to take a daily close above this wedge top, just below 1500, in order to expose these year-to-date highs, around 1550. Alternatively, a close
below this wedge bottom would expose that next
key support, around 1380. However, just like I mentioned
earlier in this video, I do dislike trying to
sell downside breaks of descending levels like this. Just like I dislike trying to buy upside breaks of ascending levels, because, just like we
talked about earlier, they do tend to trigger traps. So, a lot of times you’ll
see a market close below a descending level like this. So it closes below, even
if it does move lower for a little bit, you then often see a snap higher and a close
back above that area. So, that signals a bear trap. So, just keep that in mind
if we do see gold close below this descending level, that
it could be a bear trap, and it could also trigger a
snap back above that level. So, ideally, I wanna
see this rally continue. So, we’ve seen this consolidation, and I want to eventually see a breakout for that push higher, up
into the year-to-date highs. That’s the ideal scenario. I’d rather see this play out,
than to see gold break below this support area, and
try to sell this market. If you enjoyed this video,
give it a thumbs up, leave your comment below, and be sure to subscribe to my channel. See you next time. (upbeat music)

55 thoughts on “Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, XAUUSD (November 18 – 22, 2019)

  1. IMPORTANT! Get access to the same New York close Forex charts I use by going here: http://bit.ly/2UzPyiR so that each 24-hour session opens and closes at 5 pm EST. These charts are essential for trading price action as they provide five equal 24-hour session each week. Download Justin's preferred trading platform here: http://bit.ly/2UzPyiR

  2. Hi sir, excellent analysis…we are following your forecasts…thank you sir, if possible can you please provide signals at live trades…thanks in advance….do you have any WhatsApp group or telegram group..please let me know

  3. Thanks for explaining the breakout of descending & ascending in to bull,bear traps, it’s tips like that,that make your vids a MUST WATCH cheers Justin

  4. Top notch content, unlike those instagram scammers like Astrofx who show off luxury life instead of focusing on TA and risk management!

  5. Thanks for your views ! Your explanation really make sense .Which pencil are you using to draw , Can you advise please .

  6. Thank you Justin for the great analysis, am happy you touched on gold and have confirmed what I thought was the likely way forward.

  7. Great video as always Justin. I personally found last week difficult with many erratic moves of different pairs but its part of the learning process I guess. I wanted to ask you something practical; on average what is the size of your stop loss trading the daily timeframe and what sort of RR do you look for? I'm generally around a 30 pip SL with a 1:3 RR

  8. I don’t know how to thank you Sir. I learn a lot from you. Ever since I found your channel I being analyzing charts just like you do and I’m doing great. I’m not afraid of charts anymore

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