Traders’ calendar for October 9 – 11: What prompts US Fed and ECB to cut rates? (USD, EUR, CAD)


Apart from the news on the trade conflict between the US and China, traders are keeping close tabs on macroeconomic data. Which events will arouse special interest among market participants? Let’s find out from the video calendar on InstaForex TV channel! Since Monday, the US dollar has not been able to develop a steady rally. Active buying has been subdued by expectations of the minutes of the latest policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The document will remind traders about the reasons behind the Fed’s decision on the rate cut. Besides, investors are alert to a speech of the Fed’s leader. Yesterday, Jerome Powell stated that the question was still open whether the central bank would lower the federal funds rate in October. The FedWatch Tool indicates a 73% chance for yet another rate cut at the nearest policy meeting. If Jerome Powell confirms in his speech the intention of monetary easing, the market will have an excuse to sell the US dollar. A report on the US inflation could dent the greenback’s strength on condition that the final CPI undershoots the flash estimate. Economists expect a minor increase of consumer prices in September with an uptick to 1.8% in annual terms. Nevertheless, this reading would be still below the regulator’s target level of 2.0%. Meanwhile, investors are braced for another downbeat portion of data from Europe. On Friday, Germany is due to provide final inflation data for September. The flash estimate suggested a slowdown in consumer prices to 1.2% from 1.4%. If the forecast for a 1.2% gain comes true, this will remind investors and the ECB once again about urgent fiscal measures which have not been adopted yet by the European regulator. The signal from the ECB about a rate cut will assure traders to sell the euro in favor of the US dollar. On Friday, dollar bulls will find an excuse to increase their deals on the USD/CAD pair. Canada will post a report on the labor market which is likely to log a modest gain in employment. Interestingly, the market expected minor growth in Canada’s employment last month, but the actual figure showed a sharp rise in the number of employed people. So, experts say that Canada’s job market could be much stronger than expected. If so, the Canadian dollar will close the week with good prospects for a further advance. In addition to the above-said events, it would be a good idea for traders to take notice of the following reports. On Thursday, Germany and the UK will report on their trade balance. The UK will provide data on gross domestic product and industrial production. Besides, traders will absorb a speech by Marc Carney, the Bank of England Governor. On Friday, investors will adjust their trading decisions for a preliminary consumer sentimentindex from the University of Michigan. Market sentiment will also depend on a speech by Eric Rosengren, a member of the US rate-setting committee.

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