Morning Radio with Phillip and Dave – December 5, 2019


[Phillip] hey, good morning everybody.
welcome to Thursday, December 5th; I’m glad you’re able to join us today as we
had a really a great day yesterday on Wall Street. we’ll have to see what today
has to hold for us – a lot of stuff happening out there and not on the
earning side today, but more on the kind of the the economic front. we’ve got some
stuff happening there we’ll talk about here a few minutes. I, again, want to thank
you for tuning in to our re-broadcast of the – for lack of a better term – the- the
Phil and Dave show as we talk about the economics and the finances of the of the
United States and the world right now, so thanks for joining us, I hope you get
something out today’s show. if you like what we’re doing, please like
our post on Facebook and share it with your family and friends. Dave will be
with us here in just a few moments. [Dave] Camila Cabello there, it is called “senorita”.
we’re at 8:40 now, (sound effects, horn) there, 20 before nine, time to check in on your money
and see what’s happening on Wall Street this morning. Up day yesterday, probably because the day before was a down day. you know, we’ve kind of got a
rhythm going here. let’s see what’s going on in detail; head down to the offices of
Statler Financial Services in downtown Sebring, Phillip Statler standing by.
Phillip, good morning! how are you? [Phillip] good morning, Dave. hey, doing well today and
you didn’t cut us off at the last minute to get back on the air, so that was a
good thing too. [Dave] we actually had a chance to look at the record and I
had a short one on; I was watching the time this time. big day yesterday on Wall
Street – we didn’t get back all that we lost in the prior two days, but up 147 on
the Dow, 46 on the Nasdaq, and darn near 20 on the standard & poor’s. we’re
heading in the right direction and then China decides to kick in and help a
little bit by saying nice things about trade overnight. [Phillip] yeah, they did, because
when I got up this morning, I think the futures were actually trading down just
a little bit and- and definitely made a comeback earlier the- later this morning,
to pretty much all positive ink, right? [Dave] yeah, I wasn’t feeling real good when
I went to bed last night because the futures were down – not by a lot – but they
were off by a bit; it looked like we were going to have that one-day rally and
that was about it, then China says we’re in close contact with United States
Trade Representatives and working on the settlement, and *wow*, that just felt
good. the whole world’s bright and sunshiny again and we’re trading up. the
other thing we started out this morning with is the usual Thursday macro stuff
the government gives us. first-time jobless claims after a real
disappointing private sector report yesterday, only 203 first out- two hundred
and three thousand first-time claims this morning, has to give us some
confidence. [Phillip] well, it does. that’s better than expected; you know, the expectation
was two hundred and fifteen thousand, so definitely, especially after we saw
yesterday’s jobs number on the private sector be so
disappointing. that’s kind of a- it’s nice that we ended up surprising on that side.
[Dave] absolutely. the other item out of the federal government that starts the
morning out is the trade deficit. they estimated as being forty seven point two
billion last month; that’s off considerably but not quite as far off as
the market expected, and you and I were both kind of saying “well I wonder if the
market is going to consider that good news or bad news?” because it may mean
that we’re not importing as much stuff from China, which has implications for
retail. [Phillip] yeah, it does, and- but you know, honestly, we look at the futures and it
doesn’t seem to be moving the needle and any-at all. [Dave] and the decline in the
trade deficit probably is the factoids, and that’s about the only thing that
they’re responding to since we’ve got a pile of eyes watching retail and what’s
going on with that, and I know you got a pile of those. before we get into the
retail stocks, one non retail stock reported overnight that you mentioned to
me before we went on: H&R Block, full service tax prep, tax forms it’s so easy to
do ourselves. what are they saying’s going to happen to
them this year? [Phillip] well you know their main business is gonna be the first of the
year, which is which is really their fourth-quarter fiscally that they report,
so this is their third quarter and they lost 93 cents a share, which was a penny
wider than expected, their revenue was slightly below what was forecasted. you
know, again, they make most of their money coming up here in the first part of the
year so it’s not really hurting them; they’re actually- they- yesterday, they
closed down nine tenths of a percent, so this morning they’re up one point- one
point one percent, basically. [Dave] I’d call that pretty close to flat, net-net across
two days, wouldn’t you? [Phillip] yeah, pretty close, pretty close. [Dave] did they have- did the
report you saw happen to mention guidance? because like I mentioned, I’d
looked at the full price and the full service tax prep firms and look at the
simplification on the tax, but what- I don’t know what the percentage is, but a
whole pile of us didn’t see itemization as worthwhile last year. I kind of wonder
whether or not the tax prep industry is got a little bit of a
challenge ahead of it this year. [Phillip] well there’s always a challenge, but here’s
what happens: you know, if supply starts to diminish then usually the price goes
down. well in this area, it actually is the opposite, right? so- so there’s fewer
people doing it, having to do it, so the price actually- they’re able to raise
their price, because the people that do need it are having to pay for it. the
other thing you have to look at in the tax business is especially in those a
storefront type places, H&R Block and the likes of them, they still make a lot of
their money in February. they don’t necessarily do the refund anticipation
loans anymore, but they’ll do cash advances on the refunds and so those
people that are strapped on cash, they they go in there full force because they
want an advance on the refund. [Dave] there’s where the money is! okay, I’d- it’s kind of
like some of the internet businesses. I look at them and I say “how do you make
money off of this business?” I hadn’t even considered about the- ok – refund
anticipation loans, that’s going on a book, but yeah the advant- the cash
advance strategy… there’s some money to be made on that big-time, isn’t there?
[Phillip] there is, and let’s face it they charge a huge amount of money for that, and- and
that’s especially when you think about it, Dave.
you know, people today, if they file tax return, usually unless something goes
wrong, within 5 to 10 days they had their refund in their checking account, so
under they’re paying a lot of money for a 10 year- 10 *day* advance, basically.
[Dave] I got you there. talking about the sector, we really care most about during this
month of the year: retail. kind of got surprised, we got a whole bunch of retail
quarterly reports out, didn’t we? [Phillip] we really did, and I thought that we were
pretty much done with with all the earnings, actually. to be honest with you
Dave, I thought we were pretty much done. we’re just gonna look at- at the macro
stuff, so- but not being the case, we got a pile up, starting off with Dollar General.
you know, dollar generals are popping up everywhere these days, and they beat by
four cents a share. revenue was also ahead of estimates, and-
and here’s where they really shined: same store sales were up 1.3 percent more
than expected – they were up 4.6 percent, so a really good number there, and then- [Dave] I
knew all the baby clothes my wife was buying for our great-granddaughter was
going to float that company upwards a little bit over the last few months.
[Phillip] yeah, but here’s the the trifecta, right? they raised their full-year guidance and,
one more thing, they- they added a billion dollars to the share repurchase program,
so, good things there. yeah, they’re up to a little over two point six
percent this morning. [Dave] that’s amazing. you know, they kind of do everything all at
once – beat the street and then buy back a bunch of stock at the same time; that’s a
ticket to a big gain. [Phillip] yeah, they really done- done- done well there. then we had
Express retailer; again, they’re mostly in the malls, it’s where you see them. they
they lost three cents a share, which was better than expected. they’re expected to
lose nine cents a share, revenue was above what was estimated, their same
store sales declined by five percent, but that was better than expected. they
expected them to go down like six point three percent, so- so all in all, the
report is good. I mean, they’re still losing money, don’t get me wrong, but
their stock’s up fifteen percent this morning. [Dave] Wow.all you got to do is lose less
than they expected! talking about losing money, you got a couple of jewelry stores –
one of the ones that was losing money that didn’t lose as much as they
expected were Signet jewelers. that’s one- I don’t think we’ve got one of them in
town, but it’s big national jewelry chain. they’ve done- they’ve made a lot of noise
over the years, but they’ve fallen on hard times in terms of money, haven’t they?
[Phillip] well, they didn’t have a good quarter, but Dave, let me- let me just enlighten you a
little bit here: Signet jewelers is the holding company for Kay Jewelers, Jarrod
jewelers, you know all of all of those guys are part of the Signet jewelers
group. [Dave] okay. where- I remember signet is a brand name, another part of the country’s
had forgotten that they owned couple of the big ones we got around
here. [Phillip] yeah, they really do, but you’re right: they they had a not-so-good
quarter, but better than analysts expected. they lost 76 cents a share, they
were expected to lose a little over a dollar a share, so I guess that’s that’s
good news, definitely. again kind of like Express: they beat on on earnings also – I
mean on revenue, and same-store sales were up 2.1 percent when they were
expected to actually drop 1 point 3 percent, so- so what’s that, a three point
four percent swing there? and what was expected, and so- so good things happening
there. they’re trading up seven point eight percent this morning. [Dave] that’s good
news. how about the high end of a jewelry business? I noticed you said that you had
Tiffany’s this morning too. [Phillip] we did have Tiffany’s, and Tiffany’s… the stock price
could probably be a little jaded because they’re, you know, being bought out, but
they earned 65 cents a share the last quarter. now the problem is that they
made money, but it’s 20 cents a share less than what they expected and revenue
also missed the forecast there. same store sales were flat, which – that’s not
good either, because they were expecting to be up 1.4 percent, so you know they-
they’re- they were hit as said by some of the unrest over in Hong Kong, so- so
that’s put a little bit of an if and – there’s- and they’re basically not being
affected much. they- they’re- they’re flat right now. [Dave] ain’t gotta- I’ve found a lot of- a lot of high-end stuff tends to go in through Hong Kong’s the port of entry,
doesn’t it? [Phillip] yeah, I think so. it does, and then- so let’s go to a big loser today, in
terms of stock price, anyway: Michaels. yeah, I don’t know about your wife but my wife
loves go to Michael’s; they can always find something there. but they-
they missed by nine cents a share what was expected; revenue also missed,
and same store sales were down 2.2 percent compared to supposedly – they
expected them to be up three tenths of a percent, so again a two and a half
percent miss. their- their current quarter forecast
is below what the analysts had expected, so you know what that means- a miss on
three fronts, you’re gonna be down today, and they’re down twelve and a quarter
percent this morning. [Dave] youch. you almost has to be like Jade Jill losing their
CEO to lose more than that, don’t you? [Phillip] yeah, yeah. that was definitely a not a
good thing there either. [Dave] say, it’s time for one more retailer if you got it. [Phillip] all
right. so, let’s go to below five – we don’t have one here, or – I’m sorry, five below,
not below five- five below – we don’t have one here, but we have a new one now up
there at posner point, up at 27 and i-4, and they- they reported 18 cents a
share. that was a penny better than what was expected; revenue was above forecast
and- and the current quarter sales outlook was below what analysts have
expected for the current quarter. doesn’t seem to be affecting their stock today,
though- they’re up six and three-quarter percent this morning already.
[Dave] resetting the table this morning: green ink on Wall Street yesterday. OPEC’s
meeting, so I’ve got to assume that’s gonna mess with our oil prices; how about
the equity futures, Phillip – where we’re heading 45 minutes early? [Phillip] hey, looks like
everything’s coming up roses. we’re green across the board, we got the dow up about
a third of a percent, we got the sp500 up three tenths, and we got the nasdaq up
four tenths right now. if we look at the the commodities indexes, we’ve got two:
gold basically flat, silver is up less than a tenth of a percent, and you’re
right: crude oil’s up, not by a lot this morning, it’s up a quarter of a percent to
fifty eight dollars and fifty eight cents a barrel, but I’m seeing it on the
street in the gas prices. [Dave] oh yeah, we certainly are. and like I said, OPEC is
starting their quarterly meeting today, which probably means people expect more
price fixing, so 58.79 might be about all we’re going to be expecting for a couple
of weeks as far as oil prices are concerned. overseas markets: green ink
when Asia closed this morning off of those nice Chinese noises from the trade
negotiations; Europe generally trading off halfway
through their day today. Phillip, stabilization and a fruitful retirement
kind of go hand in hand when you’re talking money. how do I get a hold of you
to make sure both happen? [Phillip] Dave, hey, to get somebody with an independent outlook to
help coach you into and through retirement, give us a call at 863 382 0037 and let us schedule the first part
of our process, and that’s our financial x-ray where we dig down to make sure how
much risk that you have in your current portfolio, to make sure it matches up
with your risk number. catch our website at Statler financial dot com, and then
join us every weekend for the Statler financial radio show – 6 a.m. and noon on
Saturdays, 10 a.m. on Sunday mornings on your sister station NewsTalk 730 AM.
[Dave] and back here again tomorrow morning to see what they say on the trade to drive
the markets, right? [Phillip] that’s right, man. you have a great day, and I’ll talk to you
tomorrow man. [Dave] thank you so much, sir. it’s 105.7 light FM and Statler financial
services’ Phillip Statler. (cuts off) [Phillip] hey guys, again: I want to thank you for
joining us today. a lot of more reports than what I
thought were going to be out there today to talk about; I hope you got a little
tidbit out of there. if you like what we’re doing, again: please like our page
on Facebook, share this with your friends and family that we can get out there and
really start to to promote what we’re talking about every morning, because it
is important that folks stay connected with what’s happening in the economy as
we move forward/ so hey, if you need to talk to me, give me a call at 382 0037 and let’s schedule a time just to chat. have a
great day; I look forward to speaking to you again tomorrow.

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