Dale Pinkert on forex, Fibonacci, RSI, VIX, stop losses & more // trading rsi indicator divergence


Dale Pinkert on forex, Fibonacci, RSI, VIX, stop losses & more // trading rsi indicator divergence currency currencies david moadel welcome to looking at the markets with
David Modell today’s special guest has been in the Forex and overall finance
industries for a long time I believe three decades longer yeah yeah you know
I really appreciate and I’m very grateful that he’s with us today
his name is mr. Dale ping Kurtz and he’s with Forex analytics which he’ll be
telling us all about and not only do we get to see and hear him but we’re gonna
see some amazing things up on the screen here some charting wisdom which I I
always look for so mr. Pinker thank you so much for joining me today on looking
at the markets thank you very much David for the invite it’s fun to be on the
other side of the mic yeah I know that you have a podcast in which you
interview the Great’s not only of the Forex niche but all over
you know you run the gamut of you know stocks options finance and so on and
it’s just a great podcast and people need to check that out and we’ll be
putting all those links in the description of the YouTube video so
check those out now I see some Forex stuff already what are we looking at
today sir a US dollar yen the risk on currency it’s really it’s called face
David it’s an it stands for forex analytics community experience it’s a
live room it’s every day and the team that I’m with I’ve never been with a
stronger team I always tell people surround yourself by traders better than
you I’m doing that at Forex analytics so it’s not a podcast and the interviews
are part of the show I’ll now hour and a half session and for example you’re
right you know I’ve had people around like Peter book for Mark Newton and I
also like to bring on people that may not be as well-known David because just
because you have a hundred thousand followers on Twitter doesn’t mean that
some guy that’s got to it and really excellent with its work you
know there’s difference between being famous and being a promoter and just
being an effective trader so I like to lift people up that are well-known as
well are you so wait a minute are you trying to tell me that just because
somebody stands in front of a Lamborghini with bikini models doesn’t
mean that they’re that they’re the best trader or investor in the world can it
be a lot of people try and sell their brain you know I you know you you’re
gonna have to drive some years in the pin Oh in fact that brings up a great
point David people ask me all the time I’m sure you get this question
they say Dale can I trade for a living with tenta $10,000 account and you know
there’s heavy leverage in FX first of all that’s a formula for Destruction
heavy leverage and I say yes you can if you plan to live beneath an underpass so
you know I’m a big believer that even great traders should have want more than
one revenue stream okay could be their training could be a business involved in
the financial markets it could be some completely something else because if all
of your financial destiny is riding on your performance and even the greats
have drawdowns it then makes each trade too important and when we make each
trait too important we’re bringing our emotions into it and we’re not going to
really make clear decisions we might be impulsive
we might be unwilling to take a loss because we can’t afford it so you know
what a lot of people say I want to quit my day job I say keep your day job
because be realistic most of the people I interviewed David I asked him this
question how long did it take you before you had a breakthrough an epiphany and
started becoming profitable and successful trading and I would save the
after what answer do you get a my average answer is about four years yeah
that sounds about right and that might surprise people who
haven’t been there and done that people like you said you alluded to the dream
that’s some of these guys out there the stock gurus and I put that in quotes
gurus the options gurus the Forex gurus they sell the dream that you’re
immediately gonna be massively profitable you know in that first year
if you only lose a little bit of money I think you did pretty well the way ahead
of the game if you’re holding your own I’ve blown out bounce yeah most people I
know have blown out accounts and they’re off lessons to learn but really you
can’t learn experience yeah you can learn from the experience but you can’t
learn experience it only comes with the passing of time yeah and living through
stuff and in our industry that time is springtime yeah well then you begin to
recognize patterns and methods that work for you that are you will you’re patient
you wait for the setup so I use the surfer analogy you could see someone
paddle out to the break line and great surfers they’re not trying to catch
every wave they to put they too late for setup so patience and I would say
persistence are really the secret for trading you know how people David will
say well for 999 dollars or for 10 grand I’m going to teach you the secret to
trade I’m I’m here telling everybody the secret to trading is there is no secret
that it’s hard work and persistence and stick-to-itiveness says another legend
Jake Bernstein would say sure having said that I think it is a great idea to
have a mentor of course experience is your greatest mentor but you know I was
very fortunate my father who is now 83 years old he mentored me when I was
younger as to you know how to invest how to be patient how to wait for the trade
or the investment to come to you rather than jumping on it using small position
sizing so you don’t blow out your account with those first view
neophyte mistakes things like that but for those of us who are not fortunate Oh
bless ya bless that you know because most people David they get their start
they see something on the internet thousand percent return or you know use
my robot you know like the only robot I like was on the TV series called lost in
space all right yeah I’m probably dating myself well yeah for me was a tattoo
tuber you were very fortunate to cut your teeth that way you know what I was
too because I started as a runner on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
and at that time they were actually trade just opened the international
monetary market the IMF and they started trading gold and that’s when there was
another gold bull market one from a hundred to 880 into the Russian invasion
of Afghanistan and I learned from traders okay so I was able to talk to
people on the floor and learn about charting but a lot of people nowadays
they don’t have those opportunities now there’s many trading rooms for them to
be tutored in and they’re a lot of people are self-taught and the Internet
is their you know vehicle so I always say be careful to someone who doesn’t
say that they’re wrong that it’s only talking blue sky and you should not
trade with anything except risk capital do not trade with your mortgage money or
anything like that that you and your family need to survive on and if you’re
trading with scared money you’re better off reducing leverage so
extreme like in the FX market you could trade a micro lot or like a hundred
point move in the euro which on a full-sized contract would be a grand
would be ten bucks right okay now I like that more than demos because at least
you have some skin in the game and because people don’t take down most
seriously they just go oh well you know it’s only a demo but even if you have a
few bucks you’ll start to get the feel for what
it’s like emotionally to assume risk of emergence absolutely so I I’m looking at
your chart right now and by the way I’m a big fan of trading Viacom I use it
myself I say the 200 I see the 50 I see what’s either a trend line or possibly
resistance what are we looking at here yeah so uh you know the Yun’s been
really pretty much on fire for a while and you know I have a great team with me
and for its analytics so I’m actually more negative on the gup-e because I
think there might be a pop in the dollar and the euro yen which is a cross but I
look for divergences and 3dr formations and I learned this from jr. he’ll peers
drive one so here I’ll give you guys a pearl see this RSI what’s it doing it’s
confirming my yeah markets rarely peak David I’m pretty sure you know this it’s
a very weak one momentum is confirming price so that’s actionable so as a
trader if I know I have a confirmed how I should be looking at by the next dip
because there’s going to be another high maybe eighty percent of the time there’s
exceptions to everything but there’s a high probability of another high that
may or may not confirm this height did not confirm so it’s not necessarily a
signal to reverse but it would be a signal you know what the markets not
confirming momentum I’m out of my lungs and I’m gonna see how things develop and
here’s your third drive here you can see that the momentum reading was well under
70 might prefer two setups or under 70 and this is a technique I learned from
jr. Hill in the 70s it’s called a three-drug pattern I tie in my arse I
work with it to I’ve renamed RSI from relative strength index to real simple
implicator because of what it implies okay here it implies another new highest
probable here it implies momentum is waning I probably shouldn’t be long
and here at new highs it’s implying that a turn may be at hand because we’re
making new highs with a few divergences and non confirmations along the way and
I’ve even noticed at times on the third drive you could get a fractal on the
third where this might be one two three but the third drive might be this one
two three so I’m allowing for one more shot up as a possibility to add to a
position which I’ll show also brings me to I’m a big believer in partial
positions because you can take you can’t expect reflection at the crab table
you know every once in a while we hit a trade on the button there’s no drawdown
we have immediate gratification but I don’t know about you David for me that’s
the exception yeah not the rule right catching the exact bottom or these the
exact top is kind of like winning the lottery you know I I don’t count on it
I’m sure it happens you get lucky from time to time but scaling into your
position I totally believe in that because you know I whenever i when I’m
ready to jump in I understand that I’m not going to catch the exact top or
bottom and so why put the whole thing in when I do you know if I take a long
position I expect I expect it to go down a little more and then I put the rest of
it in or I put some more okay it makes I believe in the or possibly even more
important with the winning trade then you take something off the table yeah
and you know maybe you look for 50 pips on your position so you trade multiples
and that way you’re in a win-win situation
you’re not as short or long as you would be if you hadn’t have taken half but
you’ve gotten paid and then if the market retraces and you still believe in
the trade you’re recommitting with profits rather than principal or you
just take half off and drop your stop at B e on your entry where you sold it and
the worst-case scenario is you’ve made money you’ve taken all the pressure off
it’s a riskless trade now sure by the way I see a what
he called the death cross around June and then a back to a golden cross right
at the beginning of July how important are those moving average crossovers you
know I’m it’s not part of my work I just mainly use moving averages as potential
target areas and I look for confluence but perhaps drawing some fibs in as well
so to me I’m not moving average crossover type god but I use them as
more as support or resistance levels and you know when you’re a trader it’s
almost like being an attorney and the more evidence you have the more you
build your case the higher probability the outcome is okay it’s good so when I
have a moving average coming in around the FIB retracement and technically this
is what I’m looking for so I think there’s a possibility if I’m right we’d
get a breakdown at 38 we need to take 46 out first but I think this is a
reasonable objective its word broke out and it’s half way back at 43 so there’s
confluence between the moving average and a fit circuit level so the more
evidence you have the more compelling the trade is absolutely more
confirmation the better you can feel about the trade cool and I have and I
have a great advantage okay prior to joining Forex analytics I was
hosting a live trading social community on FX street called Lara the live
analysis room and I’m a big believer in social trading because we only have two
eyes and I relied quite heavily on the community and there were guys it wasn’t
a hobby they were there and they were you know giving these screenshots like
this and perhaps I wasn’t even paying attention to the Gumpy but their
analysis after a while I watch it and then watches them fold correctly pretty
good hit rate would start to give me at least I wouldn’t want to be on the
side of the trade and might point my way towards a trade at Forex analytics I
have the advantage of not just a community who still participates but a
team of great traders so this is a Elliott look from Greg Horvath okay so
we’re in agreement that there’s a potential top here in the Navy see
coming Greg and want Awards on FX Street for Best Buy side analysis then I don’t
know if you follow her on Twitter but you should Nicola Duke she does our
harmonic work okay so she has some type of harmonic pattern here ABCD with a
potential topping out here and then we have someone that’s also well-known
highly respected in the industry Blake Morel doing the basic technical
his Twitter handle is that pips are so I’m not even through yet David can you
tell the team I have to collaborate with its outstanding plus different different
methodologies pointing towards the same thing Steve Oki I knew Steve from
Twitter but now that I do webinars with him he’s one of the most patient
discipline traders I know and he he unlike me I you know my friends used to
say Dale you like to hear the ice crack because I’d anticipate moves and you
really don’t know until you get closes so Steve’s a a very good trader it was
short and silver and Aussie last week and then we have Stelios who worked for
a bank for many years and he’s excellent on macro so we have and within these we
have different timeframes okay yeah Hayley of weekly so I’m
intelligence-gathering with great traders yeah clearly now when people go
on to forex analytics and that’s with an X not a
and Al let’s see an Al yti x4x dialectics calm when people go on their
will they have access to the first of all to your insights as well as those of
other traders well the room is free yeah okay so they have access to we use a
goat above an Arab room and anyone can come I only have a few rules in the
community one is that we don’t root for others to fail so that you could
rationalize your own failure and we also have respect for guests that I bring in
whether you agree with them or not or think they don’t have much to offer to
you they’re offering their time to come in and edify us and possibly get some
business so besides those two roles it’s pretty freewheeling Ivan Singh one
someone very good sir yeah I see on there you got your free webinar you got
you can register for free I don’t see why people wouldn’t at least check it
out there’s no there’s no reason if you want it if you want to try the traffic
like page and we also have push alerts that go to your phone and these guys are
you know they’re at it twenty four five or six so you know I know Blake makes it
straight from the grocery store so you know you don’t have to be chained to
your desk and from your laptop to be alerted if something significant is
happening like an alert where support is breech or Target med those are sent out
instantaneously well people should certainly check that out at least two
now it looks like if people come in yes they can get the the free content what
about if they want more than what’s just available for free well they could join
there’s different levels depending upon what coverage but you get to see it all
for a bar for ten days I don’t make you can’t yeah oh yeah that’s correct so at
least you have ten days to you know also there’s tutorial videos on other
max it out and get the most out of it yeah
people really should take advantage of that and that link will be in the
description or you could just go to Forex analytics dot-com all right so
what else is going on the on that’s noteworthy in the markets right now that
you’re seeing well you know we’re kind of in the summer doldrums and you know
myself I think there is going to be a correction within the next millennium in
the espys but we’re right here now twenty-four hundreds of line in the sand
yeah but I could I could make the case for another new high up towards 2460
twenty four seventy the problem with that new high is on the weekly it’s not
going to confirm because we’ve been diverging on the weekly since the high
in March we have not made a new high on the weekly probably will on the daily to
of it’s a quick blow off but under twenty four hundreds kind of line in the
sand for a correction yeah but I think we could try 2465 2470 furs just to
flush out the Bears you know I people asked me this David
you know your handle my handle is get for it stop hunter and they go Dale how
do you know where the stops are and I just say well while you pretend you’re
short this market right now where would you put your stuff that’s what they all
are if you’re long the market right here where’s your stuff under last week’s low
maybe you’re giving it more tolerance down here but I’ve look bet that there’s
a few bus stops and there were some harmonic levels that were in yeah but
back under 2400 why I would expect a correction that I think we’d get one
more on into late July and then we get a correction into the fall all right
sounds like your volume might be cutting out a little bit there you might want to
check your mic there yeah so that’s yeah you know what’s really interesting I
don’t know if you if you agree with this but some people would believe that the
market actually knows where people put their stops and deliberately run those
stops they take them out because people do tend to put their stop losses at the
same places round numbers for example any number
ending with a zero or the 200-day moving average or the 50-day moving average
things like that is that paranoid thinking or do you think there really is
something going on like that well on the floor when there was open outcry you’re
filling broker had a deck and all the stops were in the same place right and
they were always when I was a runner very interested if it had STP at the end
of the order and I’m sure they got long into by stops and used that liquidity to
cover their lungs and maybe even reverse because in open outcry you see here
actually a roar you’d hear you know volume of the traders going up as
they’re electing the stops it would go fast market I’m pretty sure that elbows
have that figured out too and they know where they’re at probably figured
they’re black box formulas so I look for that you know I look for stop hunts and
you know if you if it’s an important high and it only takes it out by 2030
pips and then an hour later it’s underneath that level pretty high
probability that was a stop on because mean mister market it’s always gonna
shake out as many participants as possible yeah before the move they’re
looking for occurs and then most likely without them right right
he’s a mean guy David yeah yeah mister market I mean very good sir and very
true now as far as alright so I kind of have an idea of you know obviously use
stop losses where do you put your stops well I put my stops based upon three dry
formations I like to give them tolerance over a high okay like I was saying I’m
not going to put it right over high and a lot of my trades really don’t happen
until I think stops are elected so and then after they’re elected they’ve
cleared out that area then you could drop your stop there so you know you can
start looking at your screen and thinking you know where’s
the stops you know here’s the gyro let’s get short-term with it okay so we
weren’t able to take out the highs here on the NFP so I know there’s a ton of
stops here but I actually believe that the stop hunts gonna begin on the down
side of the arrow so I think they’re gonna they didn’t take these stops out I
think they will I think there’s a chance that they take these stops out because
look how many stops were taking out on the way up okay they took out these
stops they took out these stops this was the bit the grand prize was here and
that’s why I think that’s probably a correction coming this was the election
night okay so that was November 9 and any long-term euro bear this is it they
gave up hope under 113 so back under 113 you could get a decent break although I
think there’s more left because when you look at the longer-term formation in the
air oh I’d love to see a break back down to 111 and 109-108 because this is
pretty much a nice range trade you just do I’m looking at your watch list right
now by the way I don’t see any individual stocks or companies do you
mostly focus on currencies and currencies and indexes and crude and
gold and not individual effort issues okay although if you’re still long
Amazon and you see 10 50 I’d sell it Nikola Duke talked about 1050 about a
month or so ago and we’ve had this pullback if the markets gonna make a run
1050 could be a good out some method that you learned about big round numbers
and thoughts of being one of them so if you look at this it’s a huge base I
think eventually we’re gonna break out and really when you look at the euro I
mean it’s down from 140 to 104 you could say it’s a new bull market or if you
have a broader perspective you could say it’s a hell of a bear market rallying
120 it’s not even halfway meant yeah and then it started another down the rail so
that’s my view I think that the dollar might have trouble and I think it might
even be good for the market because it takes some of the pressure off the
multinationals sure I noticed that you obviously you’re a chart guy we haven’t
spent a lot of time integrating just fundamentals into this just the news
things like that do you trade off the news oh well I was saying that people
who buy headlines today so newspapers tomorrow are you know like going into
the NFP or a Fed meeting I’ll flatten out or be very minimally positioned
looking to react to the reaction one day I was the hosting of a webinar and it
was an NFP day and it was a week number and the Euro exploded and someone a
trader came up to me and said Dale I bought the year off before the NFP I
said good guess you know I’m glad for you but it was a good guess because
that’s really a binary bet of how the markets gonna react to news I’d rather
react to the reaction sure but I don’t pooh-pooh it because I know you know I I
have several friends and contemporaries that are that our news traders and they
knew they know how to do it and also Blake Morrill says you only have half
the picture if you’re not paying attention to the fundamentals so he does
a lot of fundamental analysis and I learned from Blake whatever he breaks
things down fundamentally yeah as far as the currency markets go if somebody’s a
beginner to trading or investing do you actually recommend they jump into
currencies or should they start with something you know that might seem
simpler just you know stocks something like that
well to me a chart as a chart as a chart and the only difference is the title on
top of it the leverage used and the beta so you know that would you know pick
your own poison but the most important thing is to have reduce leverage so I
guess probably bind stocks not on margin would be a good way to start or trading
mut like I said earlier micro lots where even if there’s a big two to three
percent move in the currency markets which are rare you know you’re gonna
lose thirty forty dollars yeah you’re not you know you’re soakin and you can
learn and a lot of people you know that started and stocks gravitate to forex
because they liked all the different possibilities they like the 24-hour
nature of it I mean even though we have after markets are not as liquid as FX
markets aren’t compared to when the stock market closes and so you know my
fit into their schedule to be able to come home at night and trade the asian
market while they’re working during your us hours yeah absolutely and just one
more thing i definitely want to talk about i see you got the volatility index
the VIX up there which has been it just won’t go above gosh even 13 not to
mention 15 I remember when 15 was normal for the VIX nowadays what’s the new
normal now 12 11 10 single digits so is this a new is this the new normal for
the VIX can we expect you continue indefinitely no I don’t think so you
know I remember when I like gold and 2000 back then people were saying it’s
an archaic relic what do you can use it for a paperweight you can eat gold you
know all that stuff okay so of course this has been a huge timeframe of
dormancy but if you notice we’re not confirming these new lows I’m going to
be interested to see where the VIX is if there is one
more shot up to you know maybe another 40 handle it’s 35 handles in the SPS
because this is starting to look like a beach ball that every time you push it
under the water it pops back so despite us being at new highs and grinding out
new highs it’s not falling apart it’s not seven and a half yeah so I I think
that I was taught I heard this expression that markets top with violins
and bottom and silence and if this isn’t a dorm and EKG of someone in a coma I’ve
never seen it so perhaps bottoming and silence yeah and should we ever get back
above the stern line that you’re mentioning you know we had two attempts
at 16 here in the last few months we start closing over this channel line
starting to look like a Ledge to me and my rule for wedges is not that they
correct 38 percent or 50 percent they correct 100 percent so once we have a
breakout then we could get maybe back just a little bit more normalization
maybe that happens into the fall and that’s thirty two so the target after
break out in vick’s over say 15 and a half 16 initially you know they’re gonna
go through this 22 and a half 27 and a half and here or not I’ve also been
doing some reading that there’s huge huge huge net short positions and VIX
futures yeah so be careful be careful you know
picking up pennies on the sidewalk and then you get rolled over feisty ah
roller yeah no it’s true and there are people who are making good money now
I’ve interviewed some of them shorting you vxy TV is VXX
every time it pops even 2:15 and they’ve been right so far but they’re good you
know I don’t know if that that trade can can be viable forever every every fix
every VIX has its day David yeah very true very true just wanted to touch
back on to Forex analytics comm one more time let’s take a look at that if you
don’t mind again what what do people get when they go on to Forex analytics com
they get everything they get traffic like page where you can beginning
streams of all the new recommendations that come out here see it’s streaming
here these are all updates they could load the app on their phone so they’ll
get the push alerts they could go to any currency and then go to macro
candlestick basic harmonic Elliott Wave all the support resistance levels we
have patterns in play these are recommended positions we have about a
70% hit rate on these you could design your own Twitter page on this it would
take me 20 minutes to talk to them you get it I’ve never seen a site where you
could want to do anything on think of something you want to do on a website
and you could do it here yeah and of course nothing we’ve nothing else
nothing that we have said today is a suggestion to buy or sell anything I am
no I am NOT a licensed or registered investment advisor do your own due
diligence do your own research make your own decisions but I’d like I’d like to
say in face David we’re all captains of our own ship no one’s responsible for
clicking your mouse but you that’s right that’s right but if you have to click it
anywhere this is as good a place as any for X analytics comm mr. Dale Pinkert
has tons of wisdom to you know to impart and I’ve gotten to take part of that
today I’m very grateful mr. Pinker you’re welcome back any time sir on
looking at the markets thank you so much I appreciate the invite David it looks
fun to be on the other side of the mic and you’re gonna have to return the
favor and come and be interviewed I’m faced by me I’m gonna grill you back
looking forward to it thank you so much thank you for watching
please like comment and subscribe and I’ll see you next time

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