19.12.2019: Predictable pound and struggling euro. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.


The euro remains strong against the US dollar. Taking into account the Fed’s policy stance, traders refrain from selling the common currency. Yesterday, New York Fed President John Williams in the interview with CNBC noted that risks for the US economy still existed. These comments have reminded the markets that the Fed has no intention to change the key interest rate during the following year. So far, the euro-dollar pair has been unable to break the support level at 1.1120. If the pair hits this level, it can resume its downward movement. Besides, there is no background for a rally. The euro/dollar pair is trading flat waiting for some reasons for the trend development. Technically, the pair should break above the resistance level at 1.1140 to reach 1.1170. Unlike the euro, the British pound was strongly influenced by the recent news. The pound/dollar pair is nosediving as we predicted yesterday when economists forecast a drop to 1.3013. Today, they expect a deeper fall to 1.2950. First of all, traders were disappointed by the retail sales data. The report said that in November, retail sales slumped by 0.6%, whereas on a yearly basis the indicator inched up by 1.0% hitting the lowest level since August 2018. Besides, the Bank of England key interest rate decision also had a negative impact on the markets. Two of the nine members of the monetary policy committee voted to cut the benchmark rate. Today’s decision was widely anticipated. However, the market mood was worsened by lower economic forecasts. The Bank of England expects that inflation will slow down to 1.25% next spring and GDP will grow just by 0.1% in the last quarter of this year. A pessimistic view of the prospects of the British economy could not but weaken the pound sterling. That’s all for now. Watch our next video, where I’ll tell you about the market situation in early American session. See you soon!

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